Via the National Economics Editorial.

“According to The Guardian, there were 4.1 million Muslims in Germany in 2011 (as per their statistical projections).

Pew Research, on the other hand, pegged it higher, at 4.8 million in 2010.

Now, I specifically chose to find sources that pre-dated the refugee crisis, having a hunch that the numbers may be skewed for political purposes.

Jumping ahead to 2016: according to the CIA World Factbook, there are 2,986,743 in Germany at the end of 2016.  I presume this number doesn’t include refugees, although it’s still disturbingly low.

More troubling is the fact that when I looked at their archived page, I found that their website said in 2010 that there were 3,044,370 Muslims in Germany—the percentage of population (3.7% did not change), although the population estimates did.

So according to this US government source, we are led to believe that there are fewer Muslims in Germany now than 6 years ago—despite the fact that roughly 200,000 immigrate to Germany (legally) per year.

My only guess is that the CIA bases their estimates on the German census and didn’t bother to update the percentage.  But Germany had a census in 2011, so why wouldn’t it be updated to reflect that fact?

Even more troubling is that Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees stated that at the end of 2015 there were between 4.4 million and 4.7 Muslims in Germany—roughly the same number as in 2010 (again, before the migration crisis).

So that’s what the sources say, but what’s the real number?

Let’s split the difference between Pew and the Guardian and assume there are 4.3 million Muslims in Germany in 2010.

Add to that the natural increase in population of an estimated 77,000 per year and the roughly 200,000 legal immigrants per year and the number begins to take shape.

Finally, let’s add in the refugees.

In 2014 The Telegraph said 173,000 Syrian refugees arrived in Germany.

In 2015 The Telegraph wrote in October that Germany was on track to accept 1.5 million, while Bloomberg reported they took 1.1 million—I’ll split difference and say 1.3 million.

Finally, 280,000 migrants arrived in 2016 according to the New York Times.

All totaled, there should be 7.89 million Muslim immigrants (1st or 2nd generation) and refugees as of January, 2017.

That’s almost twice what Germany’s government believes.

The Economic Impact Of Non-Western Immigration On Germany

This article isn’t interested in positing a hard number, what I’m interested in is the impact of this revised demography on the German welfare state in the future.

Let’s break it down.

Given that the median age of Islamic immigrants in Germany is 32, this means that there are 3.95 million aged 32 or younger.

There are only 22.86 million Germans (of both native, and Western-immigrant background) in Germany in that age group.  This means that 14.7% of Germany’s young population are newcomers from a different cultural heritage.

Given that 81% of these recent immigrants are unskilled by German standards, and that 80% of Germany’s Islamic population receives welfare payments from the government, I believe the question of whether or not this type of immigration will fix Germany’s demographic problem is an open and shut case.

Germany is making their economic and demographic problems many times worse, by bringing in immigrants who drain from the system, rather than pay into it—which was the whole point, was it not?

America has the same issue with illegal immigrants, to a lesser degree.”


Posted by John Whitaker

Journalist, small cap trader, classical conservative.

One Comment

  1. Great post! One may rightly wonder why any country would do this to itself. This is insanity and the German people will suffer long-term for this policy.



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