Via the National Economics Editorial.

1 in 3 Women Have Had Abortions” Debunked—They Forgot About Fat-Tails

America’s liberals and the Democratic party are working overtime to fight against Donald Trump’s pledge to de-fund Planned Parenthood, America’s largest abortion provider.

They claim that abortion is so prevalent in American society that it should be considered just another healthcare procedure.

In fact, Planned Parenthood claims that 1 in 3 women in the US have had an abortion—and that 95% of them don’t regret it (the same goes for the United Kingdom).

This, despite the fact that only 43% of Americas believe abortion is morally justifiable (57% believe abortion is either morally wrong, or are on the fence).

How do we reconcile these figures?

Easy.

The left’s fudging the numbers by ignoring non-linearity and power laws—just like they do with the divorce rate.

The number of abortions a woman has in her lifetime doesn’t follow a thin-tailed Gaussian distribution, where most people with abortions have 1, and then fewer have 2, and very few have 3 etc.

It’s the opposite.

The distribution is fat-tailed, meaning that women who have abortions usually have multiple abortions—it’s a question of conditional probability: if a woman has 1 abortion, she’s fairly likely to have a 2nd, if she has a 2nd, she’ll probably have a 3rd etc.

In fact, 47% of all abortions performed in America are performed on women who has had a prior abortion.

fat tailed vs thin tailed (gaussian) distributions

Basically, women have had multiple abortions inflate the figures, making them seem much higher than they are.

For example, this woman named Irene Vilar has had 15 abortions in 17 years (and is proud of it—she even wrote a book about it).

Condoms, Irene. Use them.

People like her are inflating the number of abortions relative to the female population.

The real number of women who have had abortions is significantly lower: in fact, given that only half of abortions are 1st time abortions, this means the number of women who’ve had abortions is half what Planned Parenthood says.

Only 16.5% of women have had an abortion—nowhere near 1 in 3.

The same thing happens with divorce rates: we’re told that 50% of marriages fail, however, this includes chronic losers and romantic misanthropes who have 3+ divorces to their names.

In fact, only 25% of first-time marriages are likely to fail—the number doubled due to people like Ross from Friends.

Abortions aren’t as common as you’re being led to believe, that’s just a fact.

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Posted by Spencer P Morrison

JD candidate, writer, and independent intellectual with a focus on applied philosophy, empirical history, and practical economics. Author of "America Betrayed" and Editor-In-Chief of the National Economics Editorial. Say hi on Twitter @SPMorrison_

2 Comments

  1. […] Reminds me that ‘wrong is stilll wrong even if everyone is for it.’ And there’s mounting evidence those statistics are overstated. One of the founders of today’s abortion rights movement […]

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  2. We in the pro-life movement knew of this – women having multiple abortions skewing the statistics. But, this is not widely known, and it does debunk the claims of the pro-abort crowd.

    Good post!

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